AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Sat, Oct 17, 2026
Fed Decision in October?: No change leads at 86.5%
Polymarket traders give No change a 86.5% chance, with $44.66M traded.
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Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| No change | 86.5% | $13.32M |
| 25 bps increase | 13.5% | $10.17M |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.4% | $7.50M |
| 50+ bps increase | 0.4% | $6.10M |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0.1% | $7.57M |
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.