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Prediction Markets · Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: J.D. Vance leads at 47.0%

Polymarket traders give J.D. Vance a 47.0% chance, with $712.49M traded.

LeadingJ.D. Vance47.0%
Volume$712.49M
24h volume$784,011
Markets12
Ends2028-11-08
402 · Pay-per-Crawl$0.01

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Current odds

Yes probability by marketSat, Oct 17, 2026 · Polymarket
Yes probability per market: J.D. Vance 47.0%, Marco Rubio 13.5%, Ron DeSantis 2.5%, Donald Trump 1.9%, Donald Trump Jr. 1.7%, Tulsi Gabbard 0.4%, Glenn Youngkin 0.4%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 0.3%, Vivek Ramaswamy 0.3%, Nikki Haley 0.1%, Greg Abbott 0.1%, Sarah Huckabee Sanders 0.1%J.D. Vance47.0%Marco Rubio13.5%Ron DeSantis2.5%Donald Trump1.9%Donald Trump Jr.1.7%Tulsi Gabbard0.4%Glenn Youngkin0.4%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0.3%Vivek Ramaswamy0.3%Nikki Haley0.1%Greg Abbott0.1%Sarah Huckabee Sanders0.1%
MarketYesVolume
J.D. Vance47.0%$15.90M
Marco Rubio13.5%$10.79M
Ron DeSantis2.5%$15.69M
Donald Trump1.9%$9.66M
Donald Trump Jr.1.7%$9.76M
Tulsi Gabbard0.4%$14.10M
Glenn Youngkin0.4%$8.75M
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0.3%$16.94M
Vivek Ramaswamy0.3%$16.13M
Nikki Haley0.1%$10.51M
Greg Abbott0.1%$21.38M
Sarah Huckabee Sanders0.1%$36.13M

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.

View on Polymarket ↗

How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.

Sources & citations

  1. Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 on Polymarket
  2. Polymarket via AISA API