AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Sat, Oct 17, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?: October 18 leads at 93.8%
Polymarket traders give October 18 a 93.8% chance, with $35.90M traded.
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Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| October 18 | 93.8% | $381,894 |
| October 21 | 90.5% | $342,099 |
| October 31 | 82.5% | $2.32M |
| November 15 | 66.0% | $190,247 |
| November 30 | 56.5% | $569,537 |
| December 31 | 43.5% | $1.08M |
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-sur…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.