AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Traders price Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the 2028 Democratic favorite at 17.8%
Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee event lists 12 active Yes/No markets. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at 17.8%, with Jon Ossoff and Gavin Newsom close behind. These are market-implied probabilities.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
Each market asks whether a named individual wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party presidential nomination. Yes resolves only if both conditions are met; otherwise the market resolves No. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. A replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day does not change the resolution. The event ends on 2028-11-08, and total volume stands at $1.29B.
How traders price it now and how that moved
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads at 17.8%, ahead of Jon Ossoff at 14.2% and Gavin Newsom at 14.1%. Over the last 60 half-day points, her price started at 18.4%, reached a high of 19.3% and a low of 16.5%, and is now down 0.7 percentage points. Trading activity over the past 24 hours reached $732,560, which indicates current interest in the contract. These figures are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
How concentrated the odds are
The top three names are Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17.8%, Jon Ossoff at 14.2% and Gavin Newsom at 14.1%, so pricing sits near the front of the field. Kamala Harris at 6.2%, Josh Shapiro at 5.9% and Pete Buttigieg at 5.1% form a second tier. The remaining candidates, from Andy Beshear at 3.5% down to Stephen A. Smith at 0.1%, carry much smaller implied odds. Probabilities reflect trader pricing and do not constitute advice.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17.8% | $15.46M |
| Jon Ossoff | 14.2% | $13.36M |
| Gavin Newsom | 14.1% | $27.97M |
| Kamala Harris | 6.2% | $13.90M |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.9% | $10.24M |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.1% | $12.20M |
| Andy Beshear | 3.5% | $13.44M |
| Wes Moore | 1.9% | $18.46M |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.4% | $15.78M |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.7% | $12.13M |
| Mark Cuban | 0.3% | $23.25M |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1% | $23.11M |
What decides this market
- Yes requires the named individual to both win and accept the Democratic Party nomination for president.
- A consensus of official Democratic Party sources, rather than polls or media reports, determines how each market resolves.
- A replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day does not change how the market resolves.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
Is winning the nomination enough for a Yes resolution?
No. The named individual must both win and accept the 2028 Democratic Party presidential nomination for the market to resolve Yes.
What happens if the Democratic nominee is replaced before election day?
A replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day does not change how the market resolves, according to the resolution text.
Do these prices predict who will be the nominee?
No. The figures are market-implied probabilities based on current trading, not forecasts or advice about likely outcomes.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.