AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Sat, Oct 17, 2026
Next French Presidential Election: Marine Le Pen leads at 45.8%
Polymarket traders give Marine Le Pen a 45.8% chance, with $152.26M traded.
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Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 45.8% | $3.97M |
| Édouard Philippe | 17.5% | $2.28M |
| David Lisnard | 11.7% | $4.94M |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 3.5% | $2.63M |
| François Hollande | 2.3% | $2.52M |
| Gabriel Attal | 1.8% | $3.07M |
| Bruno Retailleau | 0.9% | $2.96M |
| Jordan Bardella | 0.5% | $2.77M |
| Éric Zemmour | 0.4% | $2.96M |
| François Ruffin | 0.1% | $4.81M |
| Xavier Bertrand | 0.1% | $6.16M |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 0.1% | $3.70M |
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.