AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
JD Vance leads the 2028 winner market at 21.1%, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13.2%
Polymarket's 2028 US presidential winner event shows traders favoring JD Vance, with 12 active markets. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or advice.
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What the market asks and how it resolves
Each market in this event asks who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election, scheduled for November 7, 2028. A Yes share corresponds to that person winning. Resolution requires the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to call the race for the same candidate. If all three have not agreed by the January 20, 2029 inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated. The event has total volume of $716.86M and an end date of 2028-11-08.
How traders price it now and how that moved
JD Vance trades at 21.1%, the highest price among the 12 active markets. Over the last 60 half-day points, his series started at 23.1%, reached a high of 23.1% and a low of 17.8%, and is down 2.0 percentage points overall. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 13.2%, with Gavin Newsom at 9.0% and Marco Rubio at 7.8%. Over the past 24 hours, the event traded $673,219 in volume.
How concentrated the odds are
Probability sits mostly with a few leading names. Kamala Harris is at 4.1%, Josh Shapiro at 3.0%, and Pete Buttigieg at 2.8%, while Andy Beshear is at 1.8%. Further down, Wes Moore sits at 0.9%, Gretchen Whitmer at 0.4%, and both Glenn Youngkin and Stephen Smith are at 0.1%. The steep drop-off from the top names shows how concentrated the market is. These prices reflect current trading, not eventual outcomes.
Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 21.1% | $17.16M |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.2% | $13.90M |
| Gavin Newsom | 9.0% | $18.62M |
| Marco Rubio | 7.8% | $12.96M |
| Kamala Harris | 4.1% | $9.23M |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.0% | $7.62M |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | $8.53M |
| Andy Beshear | 1.8% | $19.41M |
| Wes Moore | 0.9% | $12.74M |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.4% | $15.62M |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.1% | $28.55M |
| Stephen Smith | 0.1% | $33.69M |
What decides this market
- The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC must all call the race for the same candidate for the market to resolve on the winner.
- If no unanimous call exists by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
- The election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, so the vote date sets the timeline for resolution.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a Yes price of 21.1% mean for JD Vance?
It is the market-implied probability that Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election, based on current trading. It is not a forecast or advice, and it can shift as trading continues.
What happens if the networks do not agree on a winner?
If the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have not all called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Why are odds so uneven across the candidates?
Trading is concentrated in a few leading names, such as Vance at 21.1% and Ocasio-Cortez at 13.2%, while many others trade at low single-digit or fractional prices.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.