AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Sat, Oct 17, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro leads at 77.5%
Polymarket traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.5% chance, with $184.99M traded.
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Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 77.5% | $21.36M |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 22.5% | $25.17M |
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.