AgentFlarePrediction Markets · Sat, Oct 17, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: October 17 leads at 95.9%
Polymarket traders give October 17 a 95.9% chance, with $14.80M traded.
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Current odds
| Market | Yes | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| October 17 | 95.9% | $379,378 |
| October 18 | 93.0% | $143,004 |
| October 24 | 83.0% | $34,133 |
| October 22 | 83.0% | $89,685 |
| October 28 | 80.0% | $33,457 |
| October 31 | 77.5% | $3.46M |
| November 8 | 61.0% | $4,819.59 |
| November 15 | 51.5% | $238,281 |
| November 22 | 44.5% | $181.86 |
| November 30 | 38.0% | $618,470 |
| December 31 | 31.5% | $512,991 |
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-…
Quoted from the market's description on Polymarket.
How this page is made. Odds, volume and price history come from the AISA Polymarket APIs (Gamma events and CLOB prices-history). The analysis is written by a language model from those numbers and the market’s own resolution text only — any figure not in that data is removed. Probabilities are what traders are paying, not forecasts.